Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Will the Bloc be the new opposition

They may be in striking distance, according to a poll by Ipsos Ried.

The Conservatives, with 38 per cent support, are poised to win 149 to 153 seats next Monday, just short of the 155 needed to form a majority, according to an Ipsos Reid survey of 8,256 voters that was conducted Jan. 13-15 for CanWest News Service and Global National.

"It will either be a narrow Tory majority or a strong Tory minority," said Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker.

The Liberals, trailing with support from 26 per cent of voters, could fall to between 64 and 68 seats from 133.

The Bloc, meanwhile, would have a potential for 57 to 61, up from 53.

The NDP, with 19 per cent support, would win about 29 to 33 ridings.

The results are virtually unchanged from a Jan. 6-8 survey, indicating that voters have already made up their minds, Bricker said.
We may end up in the curious position of having a seperatist party as "the loyal opposition".

On the other hand, it may be the Conservatives who prevent this happening, as their support in Quebec is skyrocketing (in relation to their previous levels, anyway):
The Decima Research online survey provided exclusively to The Canadian Press indicates the Tories have raced far ahead of the Liberals as the preferred option of federalists in the province.

The Bloc Quebecois remained the favourite among Quebecers with 45 per cent support but Conservative Leader Stephen Harper will no doubt be buoyed by the 28 per cent recorded by his party.

Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals, the traditional voice for Quebec federalists, stood at 14 per cent, five percentage points ahead of the NDP.

Bad news for the Liberals all round.

UPDATE: Not only that, but a Strategic Counsel poll is saying that Canadians are now becoming receptive to the idea of a Tory majority:
A new poll finds that more than half of Canadians think a Conservative majority government would be a good thing for the country and surprisingly one-in-four traditional Liberals supporters feel the same way.

The poll, which was conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail by the Strategic Counsel on Jan. 14 and 15, found that 55 per cent of voters believe electing a Conservative majority government would be a healthy outcome for the country (in per cent; total good/ total bad / do-not-know, not applicable, refused to answer):

Quebec: 64-30-6
West: 59-28-13
Canada: 55-35-10
Rest of Canada: 51-37-12
Ontario: 45-45-10

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