Thursday, January 05, 2006

Stunning new poll results show Tory surge

According to the latest EKOS poll, published in the Toronto Star, the Conservatives have a 5.8% lead nationally.

The survey, conducted by EKOS Research Associates for the Star and La Presse, found that 36.2 per cent of decided voters say they will support the Conservatives, while 30.4 per cent favoured the Liberals.

The NDP is supported by 17.9 per cent of voters, while the Bloc is at 10.4 per cent nationally and the Green party is at 4.7 per cent.

It gets even better when the Provinces are viewed individually:
In Ontario, where the Liberals have always enjoyed a big lead, a real dogfight has now emerged, with the Liberals at 38.5 per cent support and the Tories at 35.3.

In Quebec, where Harper has spent an unusual amount of time, the two parties are in almost a dead heat with the Liberals at 21.9 per cent and the Conservatives at 20.2. The Bloc Québécois is well ahead at 43.8, but the increased Tory support has come at the Bloc's expense.

OK I suppose I'll have to stop with the cracks about Conservatives in Quebec now.
In B.C., the Tories, at 46.5 per cent, are gaining at the expense of both the Liberals and the NDP, who both have around 23 per cent support.

The report does the contain the usual reaction when the Conservatives are leading in the polls:
Many Tories are privately cringing at the prospect of peaking too early, as seemed to be the case in the 2004 campaign.

"It would be better not to be the target this early," said one senior Tory.

Conservatives need to get over this reaction, especially if they want to not only form a minority government, but get a majority in the future. Be confident in their ideas and politics, welcome public scrutiny of them them even if generated by attacks from other parties (which often backfire: see the obvious hysterics from Jack Layton in the article), and view the fact that 40% of voters could yet change their mind as opportunity rather than potential pitfall.

If they want to be winners, then be winners.

Previous articles about: Canadian polls
Further good poll news for the Tories
Canadian polls: Dec 26 to Jan 1
Ipsos Reid: Con 33%, Lib 32%
Decima survey confirms statistical dead heat
Canadian polls - Dec 19 to Dec 25
Canadian polls - Dec 6 to Dec 11
Canadian polls - Nov 28 to Dec 5


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