Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Canadian Polls: January 2 to January 8

Time for the weekly look at the poll averages. Last week's results are in brackets.

National poll averages (16 polls)

Liberals 31.3% (34.25%)
Conservatives 34.7% (32.25%)
NDP 17% (16%)

These polls do not include the EKOS stunner having the Tories 12.3% ahead, which was released yesterday and will figure in next weeks calcs. In any case, I think that this poll should be largely ignored because of its very strange methodology (going back to increase the sample size) and its outlying results. I simply find it very difficult to believe that the Tories are ahead by 10 points in Ontario. (Hope I'm wrong). In any case, the averages reflect the Liberal's declining fortunes, but emphasize the need for the Tories not to become lax and overconfident.

Ontario poll averages (15 polls)

Liberals 37.9% (45%)
Conservatives 36.6% (36%)
NDP 19.3% (16%)

A statistical dead heat between Liberals and Tories. That is extremely good news for the Tories, and terrible for the Libs, whose fortunes have plunged.

British Columbia poll averages ( 7 polls)

Liberals 30.4% (37.2%)
Conservatives 35.9% (29.2%)
NDP 26.3% (27.6%)

Previous results are from two weeks ago. A very good week for the Conservatives at the expense of the Liberals.

Quebec poll averages (15 polls)

Liberals 23.7% (30.5%)
Conservatives 16.2% (8%)
NDP 7.7% (6%) note: 14 polls only
Bloc 48.5% (52.7%)

The only change of significance is the doubling of support for the Conservatives, though whether that translates into any seats is a differennt matter. In Quebec, NDP stands for No Damn Prospects.

All above poll averages compiled from Nodice.

Democratic Space current seat prediction (last election in brackets):

Liberals 98 (130)
Conservatives 122 (92)
NDP 27 (24)
Bloc 61 (62)

Previous articles about: Canadian polls
Tory momentum continues
Latest SES poll
Conservative lead appears solid: new EKOS poll
Stunning new poll results show Tory surge
Further good poll news for the Tories
Canadian polls: Dec 26 to Jan 1


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