Monday, January 02, 2006

Canadian polls - Dec 26 to Jan 1

Time for the weekly look at the poll averages. Last week's results are in brackets. This is not a very informative week, as there are not many results. Frustrating, considering the events of the week!

National poll averages (4 polls)

Liberals 34.25% (35.9%)
Conservatives 32.25% (30.1%)
NDP 16% (16.1%)

The polls reflect some of the effect of the RCMP investigation announcement which happened during this week. Expect further improvement to the Conservatives figures next week, barring unforseen hitches to thier campaign. Statistically, the election is now a dead heat.

Ontario poll averages (2 polls)

Liberals 45% (43.3%)
Conservatives 36% (34.5%)
NDP % (16%)

The only two polls reported by Nodice are the nightly SES polls. This does not include the poll results released today showing the Conservatives ahead in Ontario by two points. Consequently, these figures are not very meaningful. Expect a better picture in Ontario next week, with more poll results coming in.

British Columbia poll averages (0 polls)

Liberals -% (37.2%)
Conservatives -% (29.2%)
NDP -% (27.6%)

Damn Christmas and New Year! Ruining my mathematical fun!

Quebec poll averages (3 polls)

Liberals 30.5% (24.5%) note: 2 polls only
Conservatives 8% (8.9%) note: 2 polls only
NDP 6% (7.6%) note: 2 polls only
Bloc 52.7% (53%)

Again not many poll results, but Quebec remains the best place to play a really hard game of spot-the-Conservative.

All above poll averages compiled from Nodice.

Democratic Space current seat prediction (last election in brackets):

Liberals 113 (130)
Conservatives 109 (92)
NDP 24 (24)
Bloc 62 (62)

Previous articles about: Canadian polls
Ipsos Reid: Con 33%, Lib 32%
Decima survey confirms statistical dead heat
Canadian polls - Dec 19 to Dec 25
Canadian polls - Dec 6 to Dec 11
Canadian polls - Nov 28 to Dec 5

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