Sunday, November 27, 2005

Polling encouragement for the Conservatives

Robbins Research conducted a private poll between November 11th - 16th, with a sample size of 18,443!

The poll is good news for the Conservatives, giving them 32.21% support against 32.10% for the Liberals. The NDP gets 22.30%, and the Bloq 13.33%.

Fully 68% would prefer a Stephen Harper minority government to 32% prefering a Paul Martin minority. And 65% say that the timing of an election is unimportant.

ROBBINS believes that considering this poll and current trends (particularly in Quebec) that it is doubtful that the Federal Liberals will achieve more than (35%) of public support in the next election. We believe the pressure is downward from there. ROBBINS forecasts that the Conservatives will NOT receive less than (31%) of public support in the next election with pressure upward to a higher total.

ROBBINS does not believe that the New Democrats will achieve less than (17%) of public support in the next general federal election, however ROBBINS believes that the New Democrats could win as much as (24%), however the pressure upward beyond (20%) is thin. Moreover, the impact on seat totals for the NDP is negligible between 20% and 23.5%. The additional 3.5% between 20% and 23.5% impacts more on Liberal seat losses and Conservative seat gains, although any gains the NDP makes generally helps the Conservative party.

Regarding the battleground Provinces, the conclusions are:

Robbins believes that there is

a significant electoral shift in Canada’s largest province Ontario, where currently 30 Liberal seats are in jeopardy. ROBBINS believes that of these seats, 7 have already been lost to the Conservatives, and 3 to the NDP. The remainder is too close to call. Contrast this with 3 current Conservative seats and 1 current NDP seat which are both too close to call. Neither the Conservatives nor the NDP have lost seats in Ontario according to our findings.

British Columbia

In British Columbia another significant battleground province, of the total 36 available seats only 19 are decided, with 17 seats too close to call. Of the 19 decided 16 belong to the Conservative party, 1 to the Liberal party and 2 to the NDP.

The bottom line of the poll is:
Using averaging based on trends I would judiciously assess seats totals based on
the results of this poll as follows: Conservatives (113), Liberals (108), Bloc (64), NDP (27).

There is much more analysis in the poll report.

Hat tip: Captain's Quarters


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