Tuesday, November 22, 2005

2006 Election: The Democratic Space predictions

One of the predictions I keep an eye on is Democratic Space. They were remarkably close to the actual results for 2004, as they point out:


the model predicted that the Liberals would win 131 seats (they actually won 135), 102 seats for the Conservatives (they won 99), 19 seats for the NDP (they
won 19), and 56 seats for the Bloc Quebecois (they won 54). The model has 3
steps: 1) for each riding, it adjust the level of support for each party
proportionally to the change in support within a given province, 2) it then
adjusts each riding for variations between regions within provinces and 3) it
makes an adjustment for particularly popular candidates.


As of November 16, 2005, they are predicting National results as (2004 result in brackets):

Liberal 100 (135)
Conservative 97 (99)
NDP 44 (19)
Bloq 67 (54)


The Ontario predictions are:
  • Liberal 52 (75)
  • Conservative 34 (24)
  • NDP 20 (7)
  • Bloq 0 (0)

The Liberals lose, but the majotiry of the seats they lose go to the NDP


The Quebec predictions are:
  • Liberal 8 (21)
  • Conservative 0 (0)
  • NDP 0 (0)
  • Bloq 67 (54)

The Bloq wins big at the expense of the Liberals.

The British Columbia predictions are:

  • Liberal 10 (8)
  • Conservative 12 (22)
  • NDP 14 (5)
  • Bloq 0 (0)

This is interesting, as the NDP win big at the expense of the Conservatives, thus depriving them of a greater national total than the Liberals. Personally, I don't see the NDP doing this well in BC.

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