Tuesday, November 22, 2005

2006 Election: 2004 results review

With election-fever starting to heat up in Canada, let's have a review of the results from the 2004 elections.

The full results by Province can be seen here on Wikipedia.

Several items stand out from these results:

  1. The Liberals' power base is in Ontario, but Quebec has importance for them too. Of the 135 Liberal seats they won in 2004, 75 were in Ontario and 21 in Quebec, making 96 out of the total of 135 seats just in these two provinces. If the Liberals are to lose, it's here that the Conservatives and Bloq Quebecois must make pickups.
  2. The Conservative power base is divided fairly evenly between British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario. These three Provinces accounted for 72 out of their 99 seats.
  3. Obviously, the Bloq Quebecois relies on Quebec (amazing!). All 54 of their seats are located in that Province.
  4. The New Democrats basically sucked all round. However, they are the party that could be the real winners in the coming election, because if the Liberals lose support in Ontario, it's possible that most of it will bleed towards the NDP.

The two Provinces that stand out as important battlegrounds in the upcoming election are Ontario and Quebec.

Quebec: If the Liberals lose support, which is very likely given the Adscam fiasco, it is likely to bleed to the Bloq Quebecois. Expect the Liberals to lose seats, the Bloq to gain, and the Conservatives to be trying to locate Quebec on a map again.

Ontario: The big question is whether the other parties can dent solid Liberal support enough to turn over a significant number of seats. If Liberal support does bleed away, will it go towards the Conservatives or the NDP?

One interesting possible scenario is that the Bloq wipes out the Liberals in Quebec, and the NDP makes gains in Ontario, again at the expense of the Liberals. Then you could end up with a Parliament that has the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloq within spitting distance of each other, and the NDP as a significant fourth party.

So, having reviewed the 2004 results, we can now go on to look at what the pollsters and pundits are predicting for the next election.


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